。Р其中原始数据为:Р={1853.65,2003.07,2175.68,2450.48,2807.41,3456.70,4056.76,4820.53,5800.25,69710.05,7655.18,9435,11583.80 }Р由方程(2.3)对原始数据做一次累加生成处理,得到:Р={1853.65,3361.72,5537.4,7987.88,10795.29,14251.99,18308.75,23129.28,28929.53,35900.58,43555.76,52990.76,64574.56}Р由(2.7)得:РB= Р=[2003.07,2175.68,2450.48,2807.41,3456.70,4056.76,4820.53,5800.25,69710.05,7655.18,9435,11583.80]Р由方程(2.5)得:Р=Р 由方程(2.8)可得旅游总人次预测模型为:Р=(-)+Р(3.0)Р2.6.求解Р通过和u的值,Matlab软件求出待定的系数a,u,具体程序如下:Рclear;clc;Рx=textread('D:\1.txt');Р x1=cumsum(x); %对数组前N项累加形成的新数组Рn=size(x,2); %计算数据的列数Рfor j=1:n-1; %由数列x1形成矩阵GРG(j,1)=-(x1(j+1)+x1(j))/2;РG(j,2)=1;РendРG;Рfor k=1:n-1 Р Y(k,1)=x(k+1);РendРa1=inv(G'*G)*G'*YРformat long gРa=a1(1,1)Рu=a1(2,1)Рk=0:n-1;Рx1(k+1)=(x(1)-u/a)*exp(-a*k)+u/aРk=1:n-1;Рx(k+1)=(1-exp(a))*(x(1)-(u/a)*exp(-a*k))
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