0 Time: 22:54 Sample: 1995 2009 Included observations: 15 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -41.66190 14.69487 -2.835133 0.0141 T 15.44357 1.616220 9.555366 0.0000 R-squared 0.875366 Mean dependent var 81.88667 Adjusted R-squared 0.865778 S.D. dependent var 73.81898 S.E. of regression 27.04453 Akaike info criterion 9.556412 97 10 703 98 0.9 744 99 6.4 505 00 24 516 01 48 417 02 60 458 03 106 499 04 172 62 10 05 158 64 11 06 120 63 12 07 138 72 13 08 176 82 14 09 200 15 8 Sum squared resid 9508.286 Schwarz criterion 9.650819 Log likelihood -69.67309 F-statistic 91.30502 Durbin-Watson stat 0.933723 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 得模型一: Y1 = -41.66190476 + 15.44357143*T 模型检验通过,拟合较好。预测 2010 年中国分公司销售额: Y1 = -41.66190476 + 15.44357143* 16=205.4352 (亿元) 图2安利中国销售额趋势图(2)安利总公司销售额分析做散点图:
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