tydensityfunctionareintroducedintothemodeltoex⁃presstheuncertaintiesofdifferentparameters.ThemodelisusedtosimulatewaterallocationoftheFengji⁃ashanReservoirformulti-usertogenerateoptimizedallocationschemesforarangeofscenarios.There⁃sultsindicatethatthemodelcannotonlydealwiththeuncertaintiesbutalsoreflectdynamicdecisionpro⁃cessofwaterresourcesallocationineachplanningperiodbydiscreteformofmulti-scenariosothatthe,correctiveactionscouldbetakeninareal-timemannerbasedonthepre-definedpoliciesandminimizethepenaltyforwaterdeficitandtheriskwhenthepromisedtargetsbeingviolatedsolutionoftheIMSLP,modelcanmakethedecision-makergetinsightintothetrade-offbetweenthesystemeconomicbenefitandthecorrespondingdecisionriskorfinancialpenalties.waterresourcesmanagementuncertaintymulti-stageKeywords:;;(责任编辑:王学凤)—1434—
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