could be correct 100 percent of the time we were 100 percent sure about something, correct 80 percent of the time we were 80 percent sure about something, and so on. In reality, people's confidence vastly exceeds the accuracy of those judgments. This bias most es into play in areas where someone has no direct evidence and must make a guess — estimating how many people are in a crowded plaza, for example, or how likely it will rain. To make matters worse, even when people are aware of overconfidence bias, they will still tend to overstate the chances that they are correct. Confidence is no prophet and is best used together with available evidence. When witnesses are called to testify in a court trial, the confidence in their testimony is measured along with and against the evidence at hand.
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