基于MaxEnt模型的西伯利亚蝗虫在新疆潜在分布预测研究

and Changji.【Conclusion】AccordingtotheAUCvalueevaluationindex,uratefortheforecastof Gomphocerussibiricinthisstudy.GomphocerussibiricismainlydistributedinthenorthernXinjiangandthe northernslopeofTianshanMountain.Thesuitableareaandhigh—riskareaisupto14.11%.Meantempera— tureandtheaverageprecipitationofthecoldestquarter,meantemperatureofthedriestquarter,thestandard deviationoftemperatureseasonalchange,annualaverageprecipitation,meantemperatureofthewettestquar’ terandCVofprecipitationwerethemainenvironmentalvariablesthataffectedthedistributionofGo sibiricinXinjiang. Keywords:Gomphocerussibiric;MaximumEntropyModel;distribution;prediction Fundproject:Xinjianggrasslandbiologicaldisastermonitoringusingremotesensing(2013;2014—2015);High—levelpersonneltrainingproject sponsoredbyXinjianglocalgoverment