农村居民消费水平影响因素分析

b.  РCР315.6815Р113.8044Р2.773896Р0.0103РX1Р0.719907Р0.048306Р14.90304Р0.0000РX2Р-0.063398Р0.017137Р-3.699431Р0.0011РX3Р-4.469727Р1.825211Р-2.448882Р0.0217РBР0.332847Р0.141396Р2.354000Р0.0267РR-squaredР0.999380Р    Mean dependent varР1151.477РAdjusted R-squaredР0.999280Р    S.D. dependent varР927.7770РS.E. of regressionР24.89054Р    Akaike info criterionР9.417865РSum squared residР15488.48Р    Schwarz criterionР9.651397РLog likelihoodР-136.2680Р    F-statisticР10066.70РDurbin-Watson statР0.947368Р    Prob(F-statistic)Р0.000000Р得到最终模型表达式:РY = 315.68 + 0.7199*X1 - 0.0634*X2 - 4.4697*X3 + 0.3328*B + utР (113.8) (0.04) (0.017) (1.825) (0.141)Рt= 2.77 14.9 -3.7 -2.45 2.35Р四.ARMA模型预测Р通过软件Eviews5.0构造ARIMA模型,对我国1978-2008年农村居民消费水平进行时间序列分析和短期预测。提出要充分考虑历史因素和遵循客观规律,提高农民收入,解决农民顾虑,发掘农村市场消费潜力促进我国经济可持续发展。